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Old 11-23-2005, 01:48 PM
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Default Re: Decent Thanksgiving middle avail.

[ QUOTE ]
the chance of pushing on the 3 is about 10%.

since this is only a side and not a full middle, you are basically laying a combination of 14c to win back 100c on the detroit side if the falcons win by exactly 3.

to break even in the long run you cannot lay more than 10c out to win a side at a time, so this bet is -EV. cheap gamble though at least.

[/ QUOTE ]

$110 to win $100 Detroit +3.5
$107.10 to win $102.90 Atlanta -3

Finish on 3 10% - win $100
Finish off 3 90% - lose $7.10

Do the math, it's obviously +EV.
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