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Old 09-30-2005, 12:45 PM
playtitleist playtitleist is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2005
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Default Re: $11\'s AQ... fold TPTK from early position?

First, that was a bold raise you made with AQo OOP at Lvl1. I just call the BB here and see a flop. The t100 was a good size bet, and is well disguised as a continuation bet. However, once you got the all-in on you, you need to look back at what they might have called pre-flop with.

The fact that you did make the pf raise gave you some good information about the callers. Somebody might be slow-playing their AA/KK. Another is likely on AK/AQ. And expect to see at least one pocket pair. And of course a rag hand since this is the 11s.

So, your considerations needs to be, what hands would make that bet, and what hands do I have beat.

AA/KK - both hands go all-in here to your raise. A good player stops the slow play so as not to let you draw to two pair or trips. You lose to him.

QQ - Not likely with your holding and the Q on the board, but possible and you are dead if he has it. But, he would't go all in here, he'd continue the slow play.

AK - Not likely to go all-in with no hand. You beat him.

AQ - Might go all in with TPTK, but you don't beat him, you tie him. So a big risk for small split pot reward.

PP - Making trips is 7:1, so likely a PP didn't hit. You are huge dog if you call and he turns 88/55. You lose to him if he has it. Any other pocket pair would be crazy to go all in to a t100 bet with an over on the board.

Rags - wouldn't make the all-in.

So you beat AK, tie AQ, beat pockets other than AA/KK/QQ/88/55.

Your decision comes down to: What would he call pre-flop raise with and go all-in over the top of a t100 bet? I think it is only AA/KK or made set of 88/55.

I think you are behind 75% of the time here, based on the way the hand played out.

edit - this is all based on the fact that you got three callers on your pre-flop raise. had you got one caller, I would have called his all-in.
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