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Old 12-29-2005, 01:31 PM
AviD AviD is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 540
Default Re: The 3rd Shot at 10/20 is a charm... but not

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I believe that it takes a rare person to loose even 1/4 that much in a shot and still be playing their best.

I only ever take 100bb "shots" and move back down. The smaller shots are easier to handle when you blow the money.

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I think every time he takes a shot and backs down, his confidence degrades that much more. Granted 100BB drop is rough and non-standard, but it does happen.

The thing that is bothersome is that he's lost $7,367.85 overall at 10/20 in 0/3 attempts per his first post. So nix 2K from this last session and he's down 5,400ish in the other two, which is more than 100BB per loss average on each shot.

I think we need more info on his 5/10 experiences and number of hands played. Regardless of playing his best or not, the obvious is that he is getting crushed at 10/20 6m, so chances are his play is not near optimal despite whatever his 5/10 results are. Granted you can drop 300-400BB at 6m over a stretch, but 300-400BB in 3 shots seems extremely excessive.

It may be possible he isn't ready for the 10/20 6m or is just running ungodly bad. If he's posting a solid winrate at 5/10 6m over many hands then I might be convinced he's just running bad. But if he's a marginal winner, it could very well be that he's not ready for the 10/20 yet.
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