Re: Does a decreased winrate have an exponential effect on variance?
It depends on what one means by "tilt".
If "tilt" is a particular sort of anger or rage induced by bad beats or other losing experience, then it seems to me that a tilter is more likely to become overly aggressive than overly passive.
If "tilt" is, as some poker thinkers assert, any emotional state that moves a player to playing anything other than correct play to the best of their knowledge, than timid, weak-tight play as a result of the fear of getting big hands like aces cracked also counts as tilt.
To an extent, it's a philosophical question, if not psychological: What is the nature of tilt?
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