Re: Does a decreased winrate have an exponential effect on variance?
While I agree with this in theory, in my experience a tilt is actually a low standard deviation event. The reason is most people keep tilting until they lose. It's true they'll have some big wins along the way, but they'll keep pushing their luck until losses either bring them to their senses or extinguish their bankroll. Also, they'll play more hands, which means their negative EV is more significant relative to their standard deviation over 100 hands or an hour. So both wild betting tilters and demoralized folders will tend to see their standard deviation go down.
If that's not true, if someone starts betting wildly but pays attention to wins and losses, it may only look like a tilt, it may be positive EV.
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