[scrapperdog]

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You have a strait with a paired board and someone showing interest in the pot.. that is not the time I overbet (and I do overbet a lot).

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You think the opponent has 96? T6? I don't. Maybe UTG open-limped 96 (not T6), but even in the unusual case when they did, they put a raise in on the flop or turn. Not overbetting becasue you are afraid the opponent has the flopped 2-pair that river a full house is MUB, in my opinion. Hero has the best hand the vast majority of the time here.

As far as "blowing out JJ", I already discussed this. Sometimes they'll fold. Probably more often than they will call, probably. But they only have to call the $100 bet 1 time for every 4 times they call a $25 bet to make it worthwhile. I think they call more often than that.

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I agree 100% that the hero has the best hand the vast majority of the time. That has absolutly nothing to do with if this is a good overbet or not...

What matters is who is gonna call or re-raise an overbet. Not a hand you can beat the vast majority of the time. If you check and call, then there are lots of hands you can beat, mostly busted flushes and straits who decided to bluff the river. If you overbet it yourself then you pretty much have killed any action on hands you can beat, and promise you will be stacked by hands that will beat you, they are not gonna try and milk it with an overbet coming at them. Again, this has nothing to do with how often the hero has the best hand....or if I am afraid of a 9-6. It has to do with how often you have the best hand when you overbet it and you get something other than a fold ... which in my opinion is way less than half the time making this a bad move.