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Old 11-06-2004, 05:03 PM
citanul citanul is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 64
Default Re: How long can a downswing last for a profitable player?

Heyo,

Wanted to chime in here a touch, and respond to the below quoted post as well.

There are pretty simple equations for how long swings of various lengths "can" last given your true ROI and ITM and all that jazz. I don't have them offhand, but they're around, and I'm surprized no one has posted any. The point is that an arbitrarilly long time can go, with ever decreasing probability.

If you're not a winning player to start with, then you're in trouble. If you're a winning player who is playing poorly because of the bad run, you're in trouble.

Don't focus on the bad run you're on. Take a few days off. Calm down. Go back to playing one table at a time for a couple days if you normally multitable. Go back a buyin level. Whatever. Stop playing for a significantly long time, and return to a pace and buyin level such that the game is relaxed and fun, as opposed to the stressful environment that is associated with losing runs.

Remember that 10 buyins sucks, but it's hardly even "rare" statisically over a medium chunk of games. 10 buyins in 10 games isn't *that* rare.

Breathe, drink icewater, repeat.

Now, regarding the post below:

You seem to have a very level head about things, which is very good. You are also a winning player, which is a good thing. I just wanted to say that you should look at your distribution of 1st/2nd/3rd/4th, as it seems that for your ITM%, your ROI% is pretty low.

Don't fret too much, clearly you're doing something right (or more accurately, through ~600 games, it's likely that you're doing something right, since you're up). But do look through some of the archives or whatever, or make some posts about playing while in the money. There's some great stuff on playing heads up with short stacks to be read here. Take advantage of it.

If you want, PM me and I'll help out as best I can, but it's likely best to just drop a post or two in about your own play.

Look forward to hearing about your results getting even better,

citanul

[ QUOTE ]
I'm relatively new to poker as I have only been playing about 2 years. So far I have played 555 SNGs beginning at the $5 level and moving up to the $10 level a while back.

My ITM is 36% and ROI is 7%. I do not know if this is good or bad.

The longest losing streak I have through was finishing out of the money 14 straight SNGs.

I found that once a losing streak started (more than 4 games in a row), I would get out Sklanskys' Tournament Poker for Advanced Players, or maybe Cloutier and McEvoy's books and reread them.

IT seemed to get me refocused.

[/ QUOTE ]
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