[Lloyd]

Okay,

So let's say the value of folding equals $250,000 (the difference between the guaranteed 3rd place money and 2nd place). And what we are really playing for is the $500k difference between 1st and 2nd.

If we call and win we'll have 2,015,000 chips out of 6,150,000 total. That's 32.8%, multiplied by 500,000 equals 164,000. That makes sense. Essentially if we call and win we'll have 1/3 of the total chips and use that as an approximation of equity.

If we call and lose, we're LOSING $250,000 (what we have essentially locked up).

So the value of calling where "x" equals the percentage of the time we call and win:

x($164,000)+(1-x)(-$250,000) = 164000x -250000 +250000x
414000x = 250000
x=250000/414000
x=60%.

So we need to win 60% of the time for it to be a neutral decision. Let's say we need to win 70% of the time for it to be profitable enough.

We're then calling (versus my previous range) with AA-QQ. JJ would be slightly +$EV and TT would be neutral (and thus increasing variance with no reward).

I do agree that without taking into consideration the blinds my previous calc was flawed.

Edit: If we change his range of hands to any 2 cards (which I think is certainly reasonable) then a +$EV range would be 99+ so in that sense it could have been correct to call with TT.