Re: Overpair and OESD: What do you do?
Well, the following hands have you beat (assuming rainbow flop...you didn't say in your post)...
QJ (the only hand you're in real trouble against)
AA, KK, QQ (3-2 dog, except for qq, 3-1 dog)
TT, 99, 88 (approx 7-3 dog for each)
67 (highly unlikely with a raise or a cold call of a raise).
89, 9T, 8T (also unlikely).
What other hands would he raise with (AK, AQs, small pair)?
It's hard to find raising hands where you are ahead, but in the first one, you still have to call. If he's got the nuts, you are in trouble, but you have at least a 30-40% to draw out on him in all other cases but QQ (25%) or QJ (2%), and your odds are almost 5-1 (2200 into a 10000 pot by my calculations).
In the second case, I would probably fold, because your odds don't warrant it, and there still aren't a lot of hand you can beat unless this guy is a real nut and will raise with hand like ATs, ATo, KTs or something similar.
If the flop was two or three-suited, it changes the dynamic here, because now flushes or flush draws are out there.
Tough call...but I think it's call and fold, respectively.
Play well,
CCC
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