[senjitsu]

Are you talking about a bluff or a semi-bluff... either way, i think you're a bit confused about how pot odds relate to bluffing.

Assuming you're on an out and out bluff, youre bluff frequency should be determined by the size of the pot relative to your opponents likely calling frequency.

For example, assume there's 6BB's in a pot. I would spend 1BB to bluff at it (for simplicity's sake, assume i cannot win if im called), so I would break even if if my opponent called me 1 time 7 of the time (I would win $6 one time and lose $1 six times). So I would bluff here if I believed that my opponent would fold more than one time in seven.

NL bluffs are a little trickier, because you can adjust the size of your bluff to tweak your odds. For example, I know that if I bet the pot, my opponent has to fold half the time in order for me to show a profit, but if I bet half the pot, then my opponent only has to fold one time in three for the bet to be profitable.

As far as semi-bluffs go, you just add the possibility that you will be called an win anyway into the equation.

so say you have a flush draw on the turn (20% to hit). The pot is $20 and you decide to make a pot sized bluff (which will take you all in). Under normal circumstances a pot sized bluff would just about break even if your opponent called half the time. But as a semi bluff, here's what happens:

50% of the time, he folds and you win $20 (+10)
40% of the time, you lose $20 (-8)
10% of the time, you win $40(+4)
for a total of +6 (where normally the play would just break even)





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Hi there,

Q1: Let's say I got a flush draw. 9 outs on the flop give me a 37% chance to make the hand. With pot-odds of 2:1 I should bluff in 18,5% of the cases...right? (-> TOP p. 186)

Now how do I connect this percentage to bluff cards (the cards are out when I have to make the decision after all)? Since I can't roll a dice, how do I make my decision at the table? So far I used intuition, but I'd rather blame game theory than myself...

Q2: I more or less understand that game theory works well in limit games, because I know exactly what to expect and can base my decision on that, but what about NL? I could face a small bet on the flop and an all in on the turn. Can I even use game theory on bluffing in NL? I mean, can there be a "correct" bluff frequency in NL games?

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