Re: $33 - Review my bubble play - I suspect poor play - Episode 1
No, I haven't ICM'd it (yet), I'm simply going on what I'd do at the table in your situation. 44 is a strong hand and the UTG limper is playing so loose that you can pick up the 150 overlay from him ~75% of the time (at a rough guesstimate) even if/when the SB calls your push, so the coin flip is more than worth it with the overlay. Also, consider the SB will sometimes have A2/A3/A4 as well in his range of hands.
Oh and I certainly wouldn't fold AJo there, people who do are losing out on +EV big time, I am sure of it, and that's without doing any calcs. The 86s, you really need chips, and you only have to get two people to fold, both of whom have you covered but not by a huge amount - you can do damage to their stacks - they are comfortable enough not to want to mess without top 10% hands.
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