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Old 12-27-2005, 08:24 AM
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Default Re: I don\'t get it. WTF could I possibly doing so wrong?

[ QUOTE ]
It's not a down streak. It's not bad beats. It's a statistical problem. The following numbers are close. Not exact. But close.

Last ~5000 $20/$30 tournaments, ROI ~= 24%

Last ~3000 $50 tournaments, ROI ~=6%

And those last 2000 on the $50s have been brutal.

Now, can this big a range be variance?

Or, what could I possibly be doing between the levels that is resulting in this big of a drop off? I really don't want to make my living playing $30s.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's unlikely the $55's are that much harder, for you or anyone else.

Did you play the $55's after the $22's and $33's? If this is the case, you might have let some leaks into your game without realizing it. This can easily happen over so many SnG's. Besides that, do you play different in 1000 chip games? Maybe you are playing more hands or something like that, which might be -EV.

And I think variance can have a big influence on your ROI, even after thousands of tournaments. To give you an idea... I had an 8% ROI after my first thousand $22's with some $33's mixed in. Then I moved up to the $55s (Don't ask me why!) and now I have about an 14% ROI after 900.

Also, maybe you were tilting or tired in the last weeks or months?
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