[djoyce003]

To all those that are afraid of MP's raise:

If he know's UTG is terrible I can see him reraising here to shut out everyone else and get it headsup with UTG....his raise into the "dry" side pot doesn't scare me that much because the main pot is so freakin big it's well worth it to try to shut everyone else out here.

What scares me I think is the CO cold call.....he could be taking a card off with a draw here given the size of the pot...but with someone still left to act he has to think that it could get raised here....i'm kind of puzzled...he's either an idiot on a draw or he's got a set.

I think if hero is ahead here, he's barely ahead....and if he's behind he is WAY behind. given that he's only got $30 in this pot I just can't see calling here....the times he's right and he's ahead he's probably still going to lose nearly 50% of the time, and the times he's behind he's going to lose almost 100% of the time, barring a runner runner full house or something. He is getting a great price on making the call, but he's gotta be ahead almost half the time I think to make a push or something breakeven right?....assume he pushes for $500 and gets called by MP and CO....there is now around $1700 in the pot. Assume he's ahead of a straight draw and a pair + flush draw.

Qs Qh 247 27.35 644 71.32 12 1.33 0.278
4c 4d 230 25.47 661 73.20 12 1.33 0.259
Ad 6d 414 45.85 477 52.82 12 1.33 0.463

Hero is "ahead" but he's still only winning 27% of the time...that makes this roughly breakeven right.

If he's up against a smaller overpair and a combo draw things are a little better...but if he's up against a OESFD and the smaller over pair it isn't good still.

Qs Qh 376 41.64 509 56.37 18 1.99 0.423
Js Jd 65 7.20 820 90.81 18 1.99 0.079
Ad 6d 444 49.17 441 48.84 18 1.99 0.498

pokenum -h qs qh - jd js - 4d ad -- 6s 5d 3d
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 6s 5d 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Qh 291 32.23 594 65.78 18 1.99 0.329
Js Jd 55 6.09 830 91.92 18 1.99 0.068
Ad 4d 539 59.69 346 38.32 18 1.99 0.604

and of course if he's up against a combo draw and set.

pokenum -h qs qh - 6c 6h - 4d ad -- 6s 5d 3d
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 6s 5d 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Qh 34 3.77 851 94.24 18 1.99 0.044
6c 6h 487 53.93 398 44.08 18 1.99 0.546
Ad 4d 364 40.31 521 57.70 18 1.99 0.410

ouch.

I think there is a pretty good chance that the set and draw is what hero is up against and if that's the case he's getting in his money drawing dead........the question really becomes what hands is he up against most often and I think a set is just too likely...I reluctantly fold here I think.