[sofere]

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1. "How scary the board is, how strong your hand is," -- in a sense, these two are the same, since the scariness of the board is directly related to the strength of your hand. If you've got a hand that can only lose to a flush, and someone makes a huge bet on the flush card, that's a more likely call than if they make a huge bet on the flush card when you've got fourth pair.

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Seems pretty obvious to me...if you have a strong hand that only one kind of hand can beat, its more likely a call than a weak hand that 58947569 hands can beat. However, if it seems like the only hand your opponent can hold based on the way he played it is the one hand that beats you, then obviously you fold.

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2. "your position, his position," -- I tend to see these hands most frequently in a heads-up situation, so these also become the same issue. I'd say if he's behind me it's more likely a bluff after I showed weakness, whereas if he's in front of me, it's more likely a real bet.


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Yes, its more likely that an opponent is bluffing from late position than early position. Does it mean you should call his possible bluff? Not necessarily. There's a reason why its easier to bluff from late position than early position.

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3. "your stack sizes, how desperate each of you are getting, the blind sizes," -- all three of these seem closely related. If he's either very desperate or very deep-stacked, it's more likely the bet is a bluff. If I'm very short-stacked, it's more likely the bet is a bluff. If I'm deep-stacked and he's got a middle-stack, it's more likely a value bet.

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Yes, if you can put people on hand ranges, the wider the pusher's hand range, the more hands you can call with...and generally the tighter the possible callers' hand range, the more hands you can push with on the bubble. That's simple ICM calculations.