View Single Post
  #10  
Old 07-12-2005, 05:03 AM
Nottom Nottom is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Hokie Country
Posts: 4,030
Default Re: Dennis Bragg: Pushing/Defending In The Blinds: The Next Logical St

[ QUOTE ]
The tables only consider chip EV, not $EV. However, I still think they apply to most bubble situations.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, but they don't. Even in a somewhat common spot where everyone has about the same stacks and the SB is pushing, the difference between ChipEV and $EV is usually pretty big.

For example, You are in a party SNG on the bubble. Everyone has 2000 chips and the blinds are 100/200.

Folded to the SB who pushes blind.
According to the chart you are correct to call with a bit over 50% of your hands (which would be absolutely correct in a HU match)

However a bubble situation warps the chip value so much. Winning the hand is worth about 38% of the prize pool, while losing it gives you nothing. At the start of the hand, your stack was worth exactly 25% of the pool (everyone was even) so you stand to gain only 13% while losing 25%.

As a result even if your opponent is pushing blind you still need a good hand to call, namely: 66+,ATo+,A7s+,KQo,KTs+ (about 12% of hands)

As an aside, if you opponent knows this then it actually becomes correct to push any two from the SB since the BB cannot call often enough to punish you for your loose pushes.

This just shows how different and counter intuitive proper bubble play can be. If the BB does decide to call then it hurts the SB, but it also hurts himself and the remaining players are the grateful recipients of all that lost $EV.

(Note: the STT forum is full of this sort of analysis)
Reply With Quote