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Old 04-27-2005, 06:56 PM
gergery gergery is offline
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: SF Bay Area (eastbay)
Posts: 719
Default Re: a \"monster\" hand

I tend towards folding here, but calling could be acceptable.

A23x is an excellent hand in a multi-way pot. But, when its up against other strong starting hands that include A2/AA AND is playing shorthanded then it is not that strong.

I must admit my first reaction was call, but on thinking it over I’d lean toward fold. But it would depend on who the opponents were specifically (I have data on many players) and what their PFR #s were.

You must call $25 into what will likely be a $90 pot. So you’d need a 27% equity in the hand to make calling correct. And you’d want more since you need a decent flop (have to fold before “maturity”).

If your opponents have AA and A2K, then you are about EV neutral.
If they have A3QQ, A2K, then you are EV-
If they have A4JJ, A3KK, then you are EV+.

Net, it’s pretty close either way and depends a lot on exactly what range they could have. What swings it to fold for me is that most of your equity below does not come from scooping, which means the times you win it is half pots and thus less profitable.

A)
pokenum -mc 500000 -o8 ah 2c 3d 9d - ac as td 6h - ad 2s kh 5h
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled boards
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
2c 9d 3d Ah 59775 103073 382695 14232 54366 11702 175906 0.295
As Ac Td 6h 135447 250418 246573 3009 4976 175449 1157 0.394
2s Ad Kh 5h 73110 129268 353491 17241 22045 43970 175906 0.311

B)
pokenum -mc 500000 -o8 ah 2c 3d 9d - ac qs qc 3h - ad 2s kh 5d
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled boards
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
2c 9d 3d Ah 26055 58389 421005 20606 27747 9896 225040 0.228
Qs Ac Qc 3h 134471 260290 228310 11400 0 134233 66743 0.434
2s Ad 5d Kh 79452 159095 327649 13256 22512 70738 162121 0.338

C)
pokenum -mc 500000 -o8 ah 2c 3d 9d - ac js jc 4h - ad 3s kh ks
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled boards
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
2c 9d 3d Ah 66708 103524 385027 11449 173178 10194 96373 0.359
Js Ac Jc 4h 70750 130611 367400 1989 22781 172745 5794 0.218
Ks 3s Ad Kh 115747 253487 234135 12378 0 127656 96373 0.423
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