Re: How much is a down worth? (football theory question)
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One guess is just arithmetic: 5 yds/3 downs = 1.67 yds/down.
So, 3.3 yards/2 downs = 1.67.
So, second and 3.3 is the cutoff.
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If I were a coach, and I had to pick between 2nd and 3+ and 1st and 5, I'd take first and five.
I'd take the penalty unless I was inside of 2 yards. 2nd and less than 2.
Unless I was in 4 down territory, then I'd take a 2nd and 3.
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