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So i have to be right here 31% of the time to break even. Am I?


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That's pretty much correct. I think you are good here far less than 31%. I see only two possibilities that you are good:

1) Villain is a strong player who knows that you are a player capable of folding a hand like top pair played this way. But in that case why wouldn't he check raise all in on the turn on a semi-bluff?

2) Villain is a complete donk who just wants to win the pot or go home. But in this case I doubt he would insta-bet. He would most likely think for a moment before going all in. The instabet tells me he had either thought about it beforehand (had a set) or hit his card on the river (T7, Jc9c).

I think you are good only around 1/10 here.