[betgo]

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you think you're ahead 30% of the time, but if you're ahead now, theres no way he's calling your push. so

30% of the time you win a 3100 pot outright: 930
70% of the time you're really behind and lose 4951.. lets say you lose 75% of the time and i think i'm being generous to you: -3445

for like -2500 chips on average.. which is a lot.

Now i didnt count that you'll occasionaly get a better hand to fold, but i dont think that happens often.


edit: i'd think you're probably ahead here more than 30%, considerably more, but just thought i'd show you that according to your line of thought, this is massively bad. In reality it's probably only 'pretty' bad, instead of 'massively'

[/ QUOTE ]

Your math is off. You say he loses 75% of the time he is behind and called. You calculate the total expected loss based on no gain the 25% he wins. You have to consider the 3500 already in the pot. Plus you assume the best hand always calls. I think it frequently folds to a push.

Let's take your asumption that he gets called 70% of the time and picks up the pot 30%.

If he picks up the pot, he gains 3500 compared to check/folding. So +1050.

Following your assumption that he wins 25% of the time he is called. 13400 in the pot. 25% of that is 4350, so a 600 loss from 4950. 70% of 600 is -420.

So by your assumptions, the push is +630 compared to check/folding.

It seems to me that making a semibluff push is a good play once you are in this deep. I think check/folding is weak tight and hero's play is superior.