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Our House: let's say you needed him to lose 10% that hand
Our House: and it's really 6%
Our House: you're a 4% dog on one bet
Our House: you're losing 4% of $20
Our House: 80 cents bro
Our House: not $20
Victor: makes sense


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Math weenie jumps in to say: this is wrong.

If you're getting 9-1 (so you need to win 10%) and will actually win 6% (which I am going to approximate as one time in 16), it stacks up like this:

15 times in 16 you lose $20: -$300
One time you win $180: +$180

for a net loss of $120 over 16 trials, i.e. $7.50 a hand.

This is a pretty significant mistake.

Guy.

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You are correct. What I mistakenly did was consider the 4% difference as 4% of 100% (with the $20 being 100%). Unfortunately, $20 represents only 10% here. So being ahead 6% of the time is a 40% loss from the 10% breakeven.

40% of $20 = $8 (NOT 80 cents)