[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Our House: let's say you needed him to lose 10% that hand
Our House: and it's really 6%
Our House: you're a 4% dog on one bet
Our House: you're losing 4% of $20
Our House: 80 cents bro
Our House: not $20
Victor: makes sense


[/ QUOTE ]

Math weenie jumps in to say: this is wrong.

If you're getting 9-1 (so you need to win 10%) and will actually win 6% (which I am going to approximate as one time in 16), it stacks up like this:

15 times in 16 you lose $20: -$300
One time you win $180: +$180

for a net loss of $120 over 16 trials, i.e. $7.50 a hand.

This is a pretty significant mistake.

Guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for showing the math, Guy. I read it over thinking "that's not right... Ah, f'it, i'm tired." Now I don't have to come back later not-tired and lay it all out.

IMHO too many 2+2ers write off loose calls as "not that big of a mistake" which is quite incorrect - i'm not talking about this hand specifically (though think about the turn with no FD) but in general.

Surf