[BadBoyBenny]

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For me a lot of companys have fairly straightforward business models but I don't have the wherewithall to predict unexpected economic growth (either negative or positive) generally speaking.

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Nothing wrong with that. Some people think they do, and some don't it requires a certain amount of arrogance to think you can outsmart the market.

I think with large companies like the ones you listed, any decision to buy the individual security over some index or bucket of stocks in the sector, should usually be based on a really long term bet on their management\business model\strategy. Any short term bet would most likely be based on a specific major product that you believe in, or a percieved overreaction to some negative news.

FWIW I haven't bought a share in any company worth over a billion in market cap since I was a naive 21 year old. Now that I am a naive 26 year old, I feel that I can sometimes find inefficiencies in smaller securities that are watched and analyzed by less people. And my retirement money is mostly in indexes, any money I make in individual stocks will be retire really young money.