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  #24  
Old 09-26-2005, 03:01 PM
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Default Re: Late stage strategy--11s and 22s

Noooo you are still completely missing the point. In fact, you are getting the basic concepts right but misinterpretting it all. The main thing points are that:

1) You are not practicing the concept of putting the enemy on a range of hands. If you check my previous posts, I did state as you did that a good player will not want to risk taking a 50-50 to win so little. But...this is a way better than 52-48 chance man. People raise with a whole lot more hands than just pocket pairs here. In your example, people will raise with mostly any ace and some kings too. You MAY be a 52-48, but you are PROBABLY 70-30. It's not gonna get much better than that when you're gonna be blinded out in 4 orbits 4-handed. Are you somehow expecting to find a situation better than this when you potentially have 12 hands left to go?

2) You are not taking any consideration of pot odds. In short, you are doing exactly what you say that we shouldn't do: thinking about winning the most pots. As a good player, you want way better than 52-48 chance early in the tournament because you can wait for it, but as the blinds increase compared to stacks you have to be willing to get closer and closer to coin flips or else you'll be blinded out. Take an extreme example. If the blinds were 200/400, you're on the button, and your stack was 800, and you absolutely knew that this hand was a coin flip, would you not take it? Just by going all-in, you already gained 300 chips, because the pot already contains 600 chips and you're entitled to 300 of it.

Now let's look back at your AK example. Blinds 150/300, your stack 1350. I believe it was the big stack of 4400(?) that raised to 900. Since you seem to think that this is a coin flip, let's say that from your reads, there's a 55% chance he's holding a pocket pair lower than kings, 25% chance that he's holding A-x or K-x, 5% chance that he's holding AA/KK, and 15% chance that he's holding 2 cards lower than a king. Now go ahead and calculate these ridiculous percentages and see exactly how much money you make in the long run if you push here. By the way, pretty much anyone in this forum will tell you that the percentages I have given is about as pessimistic of a percentage as you can imagine within the bounds of sanity.

If you wanted to see the forest, you aren't gonna accomplish it without posting some type of blinds and stack sizes because...every tree is different, if we follow your analogy =P. Can't do the same thing for every tree in the forest.
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