[Wynton]

[ QUOTE ]
3-betting JTs here is spitting on the gap principle. You cannot do that against a good opponent and expect a happy ending. Only if Villain is really weak can you make up your inferior hand with fold equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's the key question. Cartman commented, "These games are very loose and that means for the most part you would be well advised to only 3-bet when you have some showdown value."

Yet, earlier I mentioned that I was talking about an opponent who didn't inevitably go to SD (which is kind of one think I assumed was implied when we talked about TAGs).

So, if villain is capable of laying down the hand, do we really need sd value to 3-bet?

Can math help here? I'm not capable of the analysis, but I think there are the analytical steps:

(1) Figure out TAG's initial raising range, presumably AA-77, AK-A10 (or down to A7s), KQ, KJ, QJ, etc,
(2) Figure out chances that he'll have a pair on the flop (including the times that he had a pocket pair).
(3) Of that number, consider the times that there will be 2 or more overcards to his pair, in which case this particular villain presumably will lay the hand down before sd (again, this assumes also that hero's image is not over the top aggressive).
(4) Account for how often villain will continue on draw.
(5) Account for times we'll hit the flop and win extra bets by having some element of disguise.

I'm too stupid to calculate all of this, but if someone else is capable, I'd appreciate it.

The bottom line question for me is whether villain will miss the flop (and perhaps turn) often enough so that we don't need SD value?