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Old 10-22-2005, 03:36 AM
sweetjazz sweetjazz is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Rhode Island
Posts: 95
Default Re: Facing a turn raise with middle pair heads up vs a preflop raiser

I've been moving toward folding these in situations where I don't have a history with the villain. He could be making a free showdown play with 77 or A4 or even AK. He could be semibluffing with JT or on an outright bluff. But I think a lot of solid players don't get out of line that often (since it's rarely particularly profitable to do so against an unknown) and many of them are too weak to raise with weak made hands. So I think you're against a better hand too often to call down profitably (though it's close, as you almost have good enough odds to peel one more).

To avoid being exploitable you should be calling these down some of the time. If you have extra outs -- say a gutshot -- that gives you good enough odds to call the turn and it's probably worth calling down for one more bet (since you have to do it some of the time anyway).

Also, at lower mid-limit games (say 5/10 and 10/20), I see relatively little semibluff turn raising by solid players in HU pots and I see many otherwise solid players making pretty bad calldowns HU (even given the liberal standards one should be using to show down hands). It seems that good players have realized that they have to show down a winner so often that they will value bet their made hands to death and try to get to get to showdown cheaply with weak made hands and try to draw cheaply with drawing hands. That seems, to me, to be the general state of the game at this point. (I should say that I have played a fair amount of full ring lately as well as 6 max, and that may be clouding my judgment of the 6 max games a bit.)

Hmm, so I guess it all depends. But as a default play, I'd consider folding. (Also, since I intend to show down more liberally after folding hands like these, I am okay if my image is weak-tight and that players try to take shots at me, because I plan on adjusting a bit to take advantage of that.) Against some with a history, I need to consider what hands he 3-bets the flop with (the fact that he didn't 3-bet this flop may say something significant with) and I'll have a better idea of how often he likes to take stabs at pots with weak hands or nothing at all. It doesn't take too much restealing on the turn on his part to make calling down correct.
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