[AaronBrown]

Much as I hate to discourage people saying nice things about me, I think the reason you feel wiser after reading my posts is you were wise all along. I'm saying pretty simple stuff, maybe it helps you organize your deeper thoughts.

While the book is not entirely precise, it seems to be saying luck runs in cycles so if you've had good luck recently you should count on it in the future; and if you've had bad luck recently you should quit the game or get cautious. I don't believe this. Whenever people measure things carefully, there's no evidence for memory in cards or dice, and the idea contradicts popular notions of causality. That's not saying it's impossible, but if you believe in lucky streaks it has to be a matter of faith, because there's no evidence for them, and they would be difficult to explain.

Brunson says something quite different. He says players will react to your recent success or lack of success, so you should factor this in to your decisions. This is just good poker. If you've shown some strong hands recently, people are more likely to fold to your raises. That makes it more attractive to slowplay your best hands, bluff more and bet more stongly on marginal hands. On the other hand, you might fold a good drawing hand preflop, because you don't expect to get full value if you hit.

I can only begin to list the factors you consider when deciding how to bet. Obviously the strength of your hand and its potential for improvement, plus your reads of other players' hands based on their actions, tendencies and tells. You also consider their moods, plus the mood of the table. Heavy winners and losers tend to call a lot, players near even are more likely to fold and raise. It's common for players to try to win the last big hand, so if you remember what happened then you can predict actions on this hand. On top of all these things, you're thinking about how your actions this hand will set you up in future hands.