[sweetjazz]

[ QUOTE ]
You should have 1 premium every 200 hundred hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not sure this is a good ballpark estimate. (I know the actual number would be slightly different for each premium hand.)

After 27,666 hands of 10/20 (some full some 6 max), I have had 187 straights, 200 flushes, and 206 full houses. Either I'm running really really really good or premiums should be coming a bit more frequently. (You predict 138 of each.)

Looking just at 6max hands (so there is some overlap with the above numbers), I have played a total of 39,924 hands at 4 different limits (1/2, 5/10, 10/20, 15/30). (But 75% of the hands are from 5/10 and 10/20.) I have had 342 straights, 300 flushes, and 292 full houses. (You predict just under 200 of each.)

I know it's possible to run really good over large samples of hands, but I wonder if the data you used was right and/or your method was reliable.

I would generally say that I am pretty loose in drawing to straights and flushes, meaning that if I err in estimating my implied odds it's probably a bit on the high side. So I might be continuing with a gutshot or a BD flush draw slightly more often than others. I also have a pretty high VPIP (26% at 6max over all four limits), which means I will hit a few more premiums than someone with a 22% VPIP.

So I am a bit skeptical, given my playing style and approach to the game, that I am running as good as you say I am. I wouldn't be surprised at all to learn I am running good and making more premium hands than would be expected. Just not as good as you predict I am.

(The other wierd thing is that my premium are almost all as frequent as each other as you predict, and it's very unlikely that all my premiums would occur equally as often if they were all outlying amount. Meaning it's very strange to be running with the same exceptional goodness in all three types of premiums, none running significantly better or worse than the other two -- just all three running really hot.)

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