Re: Discounting Outs
Thanks for the advice.
FWIW
I really didn't feel calling was an option here. At this stage, the call would have been more than 2/3 of my chips, so I felt it was all or nothing.
As I prefaced, I think it was really an exercise in counting outs. My feel was that if I hit the straight I would win the pot, that there was an outside shot that I'd win with the flush (better than one in nine (since the straight flush draw would certainly win). I figured it as about 25%.
That being said, I ultimately rated the hand at about 9 - 10 outs. Making it a slightly favorable play. (In retrospect, this early in the game, I probably needed better odds to stay in than what I had).
In any event, for what it's worth, I pushed all-in. Three followed, and when the cards were turned up, I was the only one with two diamonds. Diamond on the turn, and Hero wins the pot.
Overall, based on what I'm reading, I think I chalk this up to getting lucky with bad play (and therefore forfeiting my rights to complain about my next 4 or 5 bad beats).
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