[willmay3]

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But some of those possible straights are fairly safe because the cards that complete these straights are not likely ones for the opponents to hold.Right?

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Ben - Exactly!

And that's why it's often prudent to call a bet on the fourth betting round when you end up with top two pair or a set and somebody bets representing a made but unlikely straight on the river.

That's why when you bet the turn with a set, you're not only putting one bet in the pot, but you're committing yourself for another bet on the river when you miss quads or a full house.

Buzz

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Buzz,

Interesting post. I was tooling around on some sites last night dedicated or having alot to do with 08B, specifically, playwinningpoker.com and 08poker.com. Specifically, the guy at 08Poker.com recommends your posts, so I went looking for them. I have not been disappointed.

I know that you are positing this a discussion, so let me say that I THINK I disagree with you, but I understand your thinking, I think [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img].

The two things I got from these sites is this:

1. Don't be afraid of what your opponenets MIGHT have, make your bets and calls and plays based on the probable RANGE of hands.

2. Put money in the pot when you are ahead and have a superior hand.

I think, keeping that in mind, leading the betting, and perhaps even raising with this particular hand is the way to go. Why?

1. You MIGHT have the best hand. Top two is a very respectable holding though no rock crusher. You may be up against wraps and such.

2. You certainly have the best draw. Any Q or non-pairing diamond will give you the nuts high.

3. It is not possible for anyone to be freerolling on you. No matter how bad it is, you can still scoop this pot.

For that reason, I think you are overthinking this a bit. What are the likely hands you are against.

SCENARIO 1
A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I can see all of these hands seeing the flop and then certain fishy people continuing with them afterwards. In this scenario your EV is .312, which ain't bad in a four-handed pot.

SCENARIO 2
This was the worst I could come up with. Sets all over the place, diamonds dead, straight draws and flush draws.

A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

In this situation your EV is only .109, so clearly, in this example, you shouldn't even CALL a bet with this hand.

The truth, however, lies somewhere in the middle. It is unlikely you are as bad off as in scenario 2, conceivable that you have a situation like scenario 1, and in today's fishy climate not unlikely that you are in better shape even than that. So, you are either not entirely hopeless, to positive EV, to GREAT position.

With that being said, on this particular hand, let's look at the three MAIN reasons to bet or raise:

1. Because you have the best hand and want to get more money in the pot. That could certainly be the case here. It is THE major point that Steve Badger keeps making on his site. You put money in when you have the best of it, not when you have a lock. 2 different things (and, I know you know this).

2. To get better hands to fold. Boy, if you can get a set of Tens, sixes, or threes to fold here that is a major coup. They just might do it if you put in a raise

3. To manipulate the pot so it is SOOOO big that you can't fold. By that I mean, there are ALOT of scare cards as you pointed out. By making the pot bigger you absolutely lock yourself into calling on the river which is probably the best thing to do, as your entire post points out, except in unusal circumstances.

So, I think for all of these COMBINED reasons you should bet out with this hand, and consider raising if its led into you.

With a naked flush draw or top two pair, I see your point alot more.

With Regards,

Will May

P.S. - For what it is worth, I'm not sure we should have voluntarily entered the pot with this hand. It's not total garbage, but it has some ugly gaps.

P.P.S - this is a troubled turn card for us, but what flop and turn were we hoping for? It doesn't get a whole lot better for us than this. This hand build top two pair and nut flush draws. We got it and now seem to be complaining a little.