Re: Theorem of expected stack sizes
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Let's take 88 against a 50% of average normal player (a maniac gets played with, a really tight player gets a release). The BB is 10% of the other player's stack.
You're 3% to 6% of the players from the bubble. The bubble payout is 1.5x.
Hero has S1 other player has S2.
Situation 1 S1 = S2*1.25
Situation 2 S1 = S2*.75
In situation 1 a reraise allin is a much better play than situation 2. You are more likely to get a release against Aj Aq, hands over which you have a minimal edge. If you get beat by either a drawout or a bigger pair, you will still probably make the bubble.
Note the extra EV comes from a greater probability of a fold by the other player and because there is an overlay to retaining a small stack into a payout category.
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It looks like you have misinterpreted the theorem. It is about a player having 2 possible stacks, not 2 different players at the table with those 2 stacks.
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