[pokerstudAA]

This is an interesting hand - I have spent a few minutes thinking about it. This is the first hand of the tournament, right? We know absolutely nothing about the opponent or his style.

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are we really concerned about the flush draw? what do you think he called the flop with?

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Because it came runner runner it is not very likely. What kind of hands do people limp preflop/call a raise and then check call that flop? Mabye two big clubs...K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] You have the Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] so the narrows those big club hands...He might have a pair below the Q but higher than 5 - TT, JJ, 88, 99 are all quite possible. He could just have big unsuited cards QK, QT, QJ for TPGK. This is the hardest to figure out with any sort of reads.

Once he calls the flop bet he might be slowplaying a set of 2's or 5's or a big pair AA, KK. These are all unlikely. AA KK - would raise pf. Sets might play the same way here - but I would expect a smaller river bet. Once again no reads on how the opponent plays.


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why is calling the river better than raising? 22/55 are possible, but not that likely, especially because many people fold those in EP. AA/KK are possible trap hands. what else are you afraid of? on the other hand, KQ/99/etc will often feel committed and put in the rest.

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We have no idea what he has. The flop call was scary and the river bet was a huge pot size bet. Even if his bet looks like he does not want to be called - I think the raise accomplishes very little. A raise will force him to get away from his worse hands and call with his good ones. Pushing the river could easily result in no extra chips for you and high risk of loss to his good holdings. You checked the turn to induce the bluff - right? Looks like it worked nicely. Calling is the only plan here.

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I still bet 200-325 on the turn. -
can you elaborate?

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This is my pot....I have a good hand. I would bet alot of hands with that turn. AND - No free cards. It is the 1st hand and I want to pick up some small low risk pots.


If you check the turn you are not forcing him to make a mistake. I guess the benefit of checking is that he might make a bigger mistake on the river. The problem is it gives you no information.