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Old 12-16-2005, 03:50 PM
schwza schwza is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2003
Posts: 113
Default Re: TPTK scary board 50/100

but do you want any FE? if you c/r a-i, you only want him to fold if he has a better hand (which won't happen) or if he has the odds to call and try to draw out on you.

if he bets 1k and you push, he needs to win the hand around 30%, or have about 13 outs, to have odds to call. the only way he has that is if he picked up a flush draw, which isn't too likely. KJ/T9, his best drawing hands, only have 9 outs, so you don't mind having no FE against that hand.

if he bets full pot of 1550, then there is 4650 in the pot and villain has to call 1810 more, so he needs to win the pot 22% to have odds, or about 9.5 outs. if he has KJ, you're indifferent in terms of cEV whether he calls or folds but would prefer not to gamble. if he has KQ (7 outs) or AJ (2 scoop, 2 chop), you don't mind having no FE.

this isn't like semi-bluffing all-in with a draw, where you always don't want to get called. it's also good sometimes if a hand that's drawing very thin feels PC'ed.

the more important consideration is what the bet size says about the strength of his hand. does a set often bet full pot where KJ only bets 1000? the other way around? i would guess (total guess, as i have not played much on ub) that AK tends to bet 1000, TT bets pot, AJ bets pot, and KJ bets 1000.

sometimes i wish i could take 24 hours on tough hands.
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