[colgin]

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Checking behind with outs is good if we're not likely to have the best hand. That's not the case here.

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Actually, I think there is where we disagree. It's fairly likely we don't currently have the best hand if a reasonable BB calls a bet on this flop.

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I agree, which is why Hero should check behind here.

Let's assume that villain has a reasonable blind defense range and for simplicity's sake that he will always call and not re-raise against a perceived steal raise from button. Let's also assume that while he may chase draws with not quite proper odds on the flop, he doesn't get too carried away with it. When villain check-calls this flop and then checks the turn I think a somewhat reasonable (but probably too broad) hand range for him is:

AA-22; AK -- AT; KQ - KT; K9s; QJ-QT; Q9s; JT; J9s; J8s; T9s; T8;; 8c7c; 7c6c;5c6c.

Hero is chopping with 9 combos (one of which is freerolling against him), ahead of 33 combos and behind 141 combos.

Thus, unless you asume a pretty high fold equity on a turn bet it looks like Hero can use the free card more than it can hurt him. And that's the case even if we knew there was no risk of a check-raise (which, of course, we don't).

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You might want to change your hand range considering:

1) This is an extremely draw heavy board; way to draw heavy for a reasonable opponent to slowplay a lone pair of jacks or tens on the flop.

2) Villain wasn't defending his BB. He was SB.

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I had thought the call was from the BB, which makes the range bigger if you assume a player who will just call mostly out of the BB even with big hands. Out of the SB I expect more raise or fold behavior.

I also tend to agree that you are not likely to see a pair of Jacks or Tens slowplayed too often, but instead of discounting completely I have now applied a discount factor to these holdings.

Also, the factors you mentioned, while making some holdings thast are beating Hero less liklely, also make other ones which Hero is ahead of less likely.

Anyway, starting with the hand range from my earlier post, I (somewhat arbitrarily) applied the following discount factors:

50% to AA, KK, AJ, AT;
33% to QQ-TT, 44-22; AK, AQ, QJ, QT, JT, J9s, J8s, T9s, T8s
0% (meaning they are no longer in the range) to 8c7c, 7c,6c and 5c6c.

This left me with 22 combos in which Hero is ahead and 85 in which he is behind.

Now, while this is somewhatarbitrary, it leads me to believe that it will be hard to find a reasonable range here where Hero is actually ahead a good deal of the time.

Notwithstanding Hero being behind, a turn bet can be justified if you have a lot of fold equity. If not, then a check seems in order (particularly in light of the check-raise risk that everyone has already discussed).