Re: ($25NL): Set facing big bet on the end.
This is CLEARLY a please call me push, whether he thinks two pair is good or not is another issue.
As for his range, lets discount 4j, 49, 4k, even morons can fold those utg. So now we have j9, kj, k9, 44, 99, jj, kk, q10.
Another posted said q10 was unlikely, I disagree, I think it is VERY likely, as is KK. He is clearly on a "slowplay"
I think KJ is very unlikely, as we woulda of heard from him earlier, ESP if he raises two pair on the river like this. K9 is a remote possibility, but I would expect some turn action.
So now, I think his most likely holdings (in order of probability) are
q10>kk>j9>jj=99=44, followed by K9>KJ remotely.
I poker stoved this range and got
Board: 9c Kc 4d 2h Jd
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 39.1304 % 39.13% 00.00% { 2d2s }
Hand 2: 60.8696 % 60.87% 00.00% { KK, JJ, 99, 44, K9s, QTs, J9s, K9o, QTo, J9o }
If we add, KJs, kj our equity is now 49%. However, as I said before, I think KJ is unlikely, and q10 and KK are very likely, if this is the case, our equity is below 39%. I think a fold is in order.
Edit: I am well aware of the atrocious play at 25nl, but if you look at his actions from a (SEMI) logical standpoit, my analysis makes sense. I have not included bluffing in my range, and I dont know how to do that. I dunno if he bluffs often here though.
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