[GuyOnTilt]

[ QUOTE ]
It's all player-dependent, of course. I've run into a few players who draw to, and bet the crap out of, any badugi. Against them I'm keeping a jack here. Against a rockish player I'm going ahead and folding most hands.

The main hole in these games is people calling and drawing against four-card hands when they don't have odds, which is almost always. You're getting 8:1 here, which means you need five outs to call. Thus he needs an eight on average for a call and draw to be profitable here. Against most tight players you're not going to get that. He's going to have a seven or better much more often than a nine or worse.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you're overestimating his handrange here. I just drew 1 and it is pretty obvious I have a very good 3card hand. There's no reason to think I hit and there's no reason to think I wouldn't continue betting my 3card 4 or 3 here if I didn't hit. I don't see any opponent, no matter how rocky (though I've come across nobody even close to tight, much less rock'ish, in these online games so far) check-calling an 8 here. I think almost all the opponents I've played against online would either bet or c/r any 4card hand up thru a T here for sure. I can see some betting out or check-calling with worse ones though.

Also, I'm getting 9.5:1 here to call since Button will always overcall and never 3bet. I very easily have more than 4 outs on average here even with the 3rd player drawing with me, so I cannot fold a draw this smooth.

GoT