[pergesu]

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Yeah, I felt like it was, and then did some math that strengthened that opinion.

I hear what you're saying, and it's similar to the situations you and I have talked about in which a successful loose steal opens the door to a larger number of even greater +EV situations. However we've yet to come to a reasonable conclusion on that, and anyway we should start with analyzing the EV of pushing this particular hand.

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Future situations should always have a bearing on the present. If this is -EV, then I dont see how you are going to get a better spot enough of the time to find a +EV.

Its sort of akin to Betgo's argument that we should wait for the blinds to hit us because then EVERY decision will be +EV. There is something you are not taking into account in the math because I don't buy it. But nice work nonetheless.

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I think what is not being taken into account in the math is the true value of your tournament equity if you fold this hand. ICM does not account for the fact that your stack is crippled. With virtually no potential future FE your stack is not really worth what ICM says it is. You have a small, but real, amount of FE here. If you pass it up it is gone.

I think when the blinds are still relatively low for the rest of the table, but your stack is so small that you have no fold equity you really have less tournament equity than ICM calculates.

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Huh? How could you have less tourney equity than ICM calculates here? Of course it doesn't take into account FE - it never does.

In the math I showed, I included your FE on this particular hand. If you argue that when you win (either uncontested or when called) then you have more FE, I agree with that...but you still need to calculate the equity of this particular hand to use as a baseline before making adjustments for subsequent hands. I showed that a fold shows a 1.3% difference in equity vs a call. Is the equity you gain on subsequent hands a greater difference than that? I don't know, and it's tough to figure out...but as a general rule I'm not going to make a play that loses me 1.3% equity.