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Old 11-17-2005, 10:13 AM
OrangeKing OrangeKing is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 8
Default Re: SoB, WW and AB

The "independence assumption" everyone is talking about works something like this.

Your calculation - figuring out what your odds are against each player individually, and then multiplying those winning percentages to see how often you beat all those hands - would be absolutely 100% correct if you were facing each of those hands individually in different hands, but not when you're facing all of them as a group in the same hand. Once you're in a hand against 5 players, they will almost certainly share a lot of outs with each other (i.e. - you might be up against KQ and KJ, each of which counts the two remaining kings as cards that improve them), which works in your advantage. So while you might be 80% against KQ and 80% against KJ (approximate numbers for purposes of this example, don't kill me :P), you won't be 64% against the two of them as a group - you'll more likely be around 70%.
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