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Old 09-07-2005, 02:02 PM
MrMoo MrMoo is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 43
Default Re: Hand Reading, PP style

Let's see how bad I can f this up.

I'm going to go step by step and try to narrow this down. The biggest problem I see with this is that to narrow down UTG's hand a decent amount I need to assume that he's a decent player. Considering his preflop min-raise, thats kinda hard.

Preflop:
UTG's min raise seems like a high pocket pair, Axs, or relatively weak high cards (AQ-A10, KQ-K10, QJ, JT).
MLG will call here with any two.

Flop:
MLG's check with two clubs on board likely rules out AA, JJ, 55, AJ, A5.
UTG's checks with two clubs on board and A LOT of people in the pot. I'd rule out him trapping with trips here because of that. I'd also rule out two pair. Probably KK and he's scared of the A, KQ-K10, QJ, JT or a weak ace. He'd likely bet out with AQ, so we rule that out. That leaves us with KK, KQ-K10, QJ, JT, A10-A2.

Turn:
UTG's bet on the turn shows he's still interested. His little less than half the pot bet seems like a probe. Since the board is double paired he wants to get draws out but he doesn't really like his hand and wants to get away if he can. So I think his hand range stays mostly the same but you might be able to rule out KJ as I would think the Q would scare him.
MLG's call here can narrows his range down drastically. MLG definitely doesn't have trips or two pair because he wouldn't flat call with any of those. Flush draw is definitely possible. As is a made straight. Ax is possible but unlikely. I think most everything else is out as he'd raise here with most other hands fearing UTG has a flush draw.

River:
UTG's bet doesn't mean too much. I'd still say KK, KQ, K10, QJ, or weak ace.
MLG pushes. Hmm. This confuses me. If he had the made straight I would think he'd simply double UTG's 300 and try to suck out a little more. Still possible though if MLG put UTG on a decent hand which would call a push. A busted flush draw is possible but unlikely as I think MLG would think that UTG would probably call with K10, Ax and possibly with KQ, KK. However I'm doubting that MLG thinks he has the straight. A7 makes some sense.

So...
UTG: K10, A10-A2, KK, KQ
MLG: K10, A7 or busted flush draw

UTG should call with K10, A7.
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