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Another way to think about it.

For everytime you bet, do you get 2 or 3 callers as often as you get 1 caller?

For everytime you get check raised, do you get 2-3 people seeing the river as often as you get 1?

Yeah, still seems like an easy bet. Just too much equity with 1/3rd of the deck on your side.

So basically the only time a turn bet is bad is when you only get 1 caller or you get checkraised and it's heads up. I'm convinced these scenrios are in the minority.

Thanks for staying with my rambling.

Krishan

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This isn't all true, but close. It's dependent on what your opponents have. There is value with more than 1 opponent calling or even raising depending on what your opponents have. If one of them have something like a set, you're getting the worst of it.

This is why I do not like a raise in many scenarios on the turn here. It eliminates a lot of the scenarios we need to make putting money in on the turn here +EV. This, of course, depends on the % of time the bettor (and everyone behind us) will fold since it really is a semi-bluff.