[spydog]

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I check-call the turn/river.

He raised preflop but didn't cap. So, his most likely holding is unpaired broadway cards. He would have capped AK, so you are ahead of the majority of his possible holdings on the turn. There is a good possibility that he is sitting dominated with only 3 outs. Yes, sometimes he has the lone flush card or even a made flush. However, even with a lone flush card he will often make a money-losing semi-bluff on the turn. All of this adds up to a show-downable hand that benefits little by betting the turn because he will likely fold any unpaired overcards that don't contain a club. And remember, he will bet most of those unpaired overcards that contain a club.

The bottom line is that you must get to showdown with this hand.

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When he 3-bets his most likely holdings is big broadways but that changes IMO when he raises the turn. Most players at 5/10 don't raise those for a free showdown. I think this is an overpair, a set, an 8 or a flush the majority of the time. Some of the time it will a high lone club. I think the real question is how often and I have trouble quantifying that. Anybody want a take a shot at an estimate?

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I'm not questioning your turn fold. I just think it was bad to lead this turn. Check-call, check-call costs only 1 more BB than bet-fold. The benefits are numerous. You always get to see a showdown. You allow yourself to catch up if you are behind a non-set pocket pair. Plus, you will snap off a bazillion bluffs from hands that are drawing to 3 or 12 outs. Meanwhile, betting this turn probably folds every worse hand, except flush draws, which are likely to stab at the turn or river.