[Lmn55d]

i think you might overestimate how often he checks behind with an ace on the turn and underestimate how often he calls with a 6 or 7 on this board. In my experience, if he's checking a pair on the turn, it's because he's going to showdown regardless of what comes and he wants to get there as cheaply as possible. Or he has a monster.

I'm willing to be convinced otherwise, however.