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Interesting responses.

I think I'll throw in the next piece of the puzzle for kicks...

Turn: (4.00 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero ???

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3-bet the turn. check/call the river.
if capped- fold.

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I don't think this can be correct. The reason so is what % of the time do you think we're ahead when he c/r us? For a 3 bet to be correct, we have to have the best hand &gt;50% of the time which IMO is not the case.

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I'm sorry, but I just can't put him on a 9 here. Villian is at 14.3% VP$P, and that's through almost 600 hands, so we can safely assume he plays tight preflop. He called a raise from the SB, knowing he'd be OOP the rest of the hand against a pre-flop raiser. His PFR% is high enough that I'd expect to see a re-raise if he had AA/KK/QQ (but not much else). The only hands I can see him doing that with that beat us are 99 and maybe, possibly, A9s if he's feeling really lucky. If he's got 99 and flopped quads, we pay him off, tell him "nice hand" and move on.

But, I think we're still ahead enough times to justify a 3-bet here, and if he caps, just check/call the river.