View Single Post
  #8  
Old 11-09-2005, 04:06 AM
sweetjazz sweetjazz is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Rhode Island
Posts: 95
Default Re: Bellagio 30/60 62s hand

[ QUOTE ]
I'd have folded on the flop because with K-J out there it's too likely I'm already up against two pair. Id'be more inclined to call if the flop was something like K-8-2.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think the threat of KJ is too serious, because in that case you would still have 2 deuce outs and the backdoor flush draw, making the flop call slightly bad but not horrible (and certainly KJ is not out all the time; in fact, it's usually not in anyone's hand).

More serious is the possibility of being up against KK or JJ, in which case you are drawing almost dead. Is that enough to negate the implied odds you have against AK/AA (possibly even KQ or QQ depending how villain plays)?

I think the flop peel is close (but probably slightly +EV). In a live game, I like to play any time it's close, because all things being equal, I'd like to have an image of gamboooler. If I end up showing down 62s and it gets me a cold-call the next time I raise preflop from someone who would have folded had he not seen my 62s at showdown, then I come out a big winner.

Of course, if the play is clearly -EV, then I fold. But we have 6 outs here often enough to peel, making up for those times when we only have 3 outs or are drawing to the runner-runner flush that doesn't pair the board.
Reply With Quote