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LSU is indeed overrated. So is "u"ga, but not as much. Sagarin predictor lines it at LSU -2.3, but you probably can adjust that a little because it doesn't take into account the earlier injury to Shockley. So -1 seems like a reasonable line.

If anything, I'd lean to betting "u"ga. Good luck.

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MCS, I know you are a fan of the Sagarin predictor. I looked at this earlier in the year and sort of dismissed it. I think the big weakness it has is that it doesn't take into account how teams are playing recently. For example, Michigan State is #18 on it still. That being said, I think this would have some good applications, especially in late season games when there is a lot more data. How do you account for home field advantage with the formula? I am pretty sure Sagarin uses a universal constant for home field, which would not be good in many cases. Also, this may be good for bowl matchups to pick teams that may be better than their record that have played a tough schedule. Sorry to hijack the thread, but I thought this was an interesting topic.