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Old 03-25-2005, 01:19 AM
LinusKS LinusKS is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 480
Default Re: Raise preflop, bet the flop, now what?

You're not the only one. A lot of people feel like that (including me). Playing overcards is complicated, and tricky.

Here's my take.

1. Check. Chances are you're behind. Any pair will call you down, and if somebody actually likes his hand, this is where he puts in his raise.

Unfortunately, if it's bet back to you - which it probably will be - you'll have a tough choice to make.

There'll be at least 7.5 bets in the pot (minus the rake), and, if your overs are good, you'll be getting - barely - odds to see one more bet.

Unfortunately, you can't be sure of that. There's always a small chance somebody's already made two pair or a set.

To make things even a little worse, your check basically invited someone to try to steal this pot, and very often, that's exactly what someone will try to do.

Absent any reads, I guess I figure this to be a call, although a very close one.

If it gets checked around, I don't necessarily take that to mean you're ahead - against three opponents, I'm willing to take it as a free card.

If you miss the river, you have to check. If it's bet, you have to compare the pot odds against the (small) chance your A high is actually good. There'll be approximately ten bets in the pot by then, depending on the action on the turn, so if you're against a singly laggy opponent, you might actually have to throw one more bet in, painful though that is.

Against two or more, or against a generally passive player, it's an obvious fold.

If you hit the river, I'd check-call a passive player, and check-raise a lag. Absent any reads, I check.

Against two players, my gut is a value raise might be in order. I figure two players are less likely to fold than one, and if one of them does have a better hand, he's less likely to raise in a three-way pot than he would heads up.
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