Re: Going for two each time Theory
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1. Points don't have linear utility. Increasing your point total by 8 is better than increasing it by 7, because you'll beat a TD+PAT rather than tying it. But increasing your point total by 7 comparatively even better than increasing it by 6, because you'll tie a TD+PAT and beat 2 FGs. Even though both differences are 1 point, the downside risk of a 2pt conv. is higher than its upside.
2. Going for 2 early in a game gives the other team informational advantages. Whenever they have to make a similar decision, they can act knowing whether or not you made your conversion. If you did not, they can play conservatively to win. If you did make it, they can gamble and sometimes tie you. The benefit is substantially decreased because the other team can adjust if you succeed.
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right on...I almost posted something like this, but my economics is quite rusty. I think I did a brain flush the second I dropped out of my PhD work.
I think much of these ideas do not account for the fact that the plays are not held in isolation. A football game is a dynamic system with each play inter-related to the next. Pushing to maximize the output of any one play, or "event," can have very detrimental consequences towards maximizing the output of the entire game, or "system."
While I think that football coaches are too conservative, I do not see the fault in going for two not frequent enough. I see coaches go for two far too frequently. I also think they should go for it on fourth more often, but not nearly as often as suggested in the paper by the Professor out at Berkeley.
What I have seen in football is the total breakdown of risk-taking on the offensive side of the ball. The mid to long range passing game is becoming extinct. I think everyone realized how important turnovers are, but over-reacted. An interception 35 yards downfield is different than a fumble at the line. Oh well...I have a whole notebook full of observations of things I'd change if I were a coach. Maybe after I make millions at poker, I'll work my way up from the low levels of coaching.
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