View Single Post
  #1  
Old 11-15-2005, 10:11 AM
Aces McGee Aces McGee is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Bethesda, MD
Posts: 509
Default Fantasy football theory

THis is going to be a long post. It's about trading with other teams at the top of your league. I've been thinking about this for a couple of days because of a situation I'm in in one of my leagues.

I'm in a $100 Yahoo! single-season league with a bunch of people I've never played with and don't know all that well. They do the league every year (they're all friends/family) and a friend of mine invited me to participate this season.

It's a 14-team league, but only 13 teams have actual owners (the 14th guy bailed and so we created a ghost that doesn't have any players of note, never starts anyone in the active roster, and is therefore essentially a bye week for his opponent.

Simply put, most of the players in the league aren't any good. They are the classic "fill-out-the-roster-before-drafting-backups" crowd, and they all carry two quarterbacks, backup kickers, they stick with one defense, etc. They're casual players, for the most part; they take a very active role in terms of transactions, but don't do a lot of "studying" fantasy theory, if that makes sense.

We start 1 QB, 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF. 6 pts for all TDs, 10 yds/pt for rushing and receiving, 50 yds/pt for passing. Turnovers are -3. Kickers get extra points for longer field goals, and don't lose points for missing field goals. Defense gets the Yahoo! standard 10 pts for a shutout, 7 for allowing 1-6, 4 for 7-13, 1 for 14-20, -1 for 28-34, -4 for 35+. One point for a sack, 3 pts for a turnover, 2 for a blocked kick, 6 for defensive and special teams TDs.

Our playoffs are weeks 14-16. Six teams make it; the top two teams get byes into the semis starting week 15.

Most of that is unnecessary, but I figured I'd include it.

Here's my team:

QB: Bulger, Holcomb (had him around in case Bulger wasn't ready to go and haven't released him yet)
RB: Alexander, Jordan, S. Jackson, Droughns, Fisher (time to dump this guy)
WR: C. Johnson, Fitzgerald, Evans, Burleson (speculatively snatched off of waivers after being dropped), D. Bennett (ditto)
TE: Crumpler
K: Mare (picked up to replace Elam on a bye week and didn't bother switching this week)
DEF: Rotating each week (I'm the only one in the league who does this.

I got Jackson two weeks ago, when a guy was in serious bye week trouble, and I traded Thomas Jones for him straight up.

Anyway...

I'm 10-0. I've scored 984 points. Only two other teams are even close, in terms of points:

Team A is 8-2 with 943 points.
Team B is 5-5 with 921 points.

Team A is in second place in the league, tied with another team at 8-2 but ahead on point differential. The other 8-2 team is in the middle of the pack in terms of points.

Here's where it gets interesting. Here's Team A's roster:

QB: Palmer, Delhomme
RB: Foster, W. Parker, Benson
WR: S. Smith, Holt, Glenn, Curtis, Stokley
TE: Gates, Franks
K: Rackers
DEF: Washington, Buffalo

As you can see, Team A is in desperate need of a running back, and I've got one to spare.

Here's where the theory comes in. I've long believed that you shouldn't trade with your close competition unless the trade clearly benefits you more than it benefits him. And while whoever I'd get from my opponent would certainly be more valuable to me than a running back who sits on my bench, I'm apprehensive about giving Team A -- statistically my closest rival -- another weapon, even if it means taking one of his away. I'm fairly confident in my team's superiority over his, due to his RB situation (injuries killed him, he had McAllister), but the temptation to improve my team by giving up a player I'm not even using is great.

Complicating matters is Team B, the third-highest scoring team, although as it stands, he's in danger of missing the playoffs (top six make it, he's in 7th). His team is:

QB: McNabb, Green
WR: Burress, Driver, Lloyd, Owens
RB: Tomlinson, C. Martin, Ri. Williams, K. Johnson (Denver)
K: Vinatieri, Vanderjagt
DEF: Carolina, Dallas

With Owens out, I'm worried that Team B will try to trade Ricky to Team A. If Team A is going to benefit and help his team out, I'd like to benefit myself, too, and I'd like to keep Team B out of it. That is, if two of the top three teams are going to complete a trade with each other, I'd like to be one of them.

I realize this is a long, involved post, and I'm not necessarily asking advice, although whatever you've got is appreciated. But I haven't seen a ton written or discussed on this subject, and I think it is the basis for what could be an interesting discussion. I've had fun thinking about it, and my friends and I have had some lively discussion regarding it.

So...

1)Do you ever trade with your main competition in a league?
2)If yes, just how good does the deal have to be?

Feel free to use my situation (outlined above) for examples of deals you might do. Assume that you can get a receiver like Derrick Mason or Lavaranues Coles for Droughns from a team that is basically out of contention, as an alternative (I've been offered both of those players for Droughns).

Thanks for reading.
Reply With Quote