[switters]

turns out I was computing the choose function wrong... correcting the math from the previous post:

quads : 2 ways
boats : 10's full ((3 C 2) * 3 = 9) ways + J's full ((3 C 2) * 3 = 9) ways = 18 ways
trips : 2 * ((3 C 2) * 44) = 264 ways
two pair : 3 * 3 * 44 = 396 ways
top pair : 2 * (3 * (32 C 2)) = 2976 ways ( some of these are double-counted with the flush and str8 draws )

18 + 264 + 396 + 2976 = 3654 ways to win (minus a few for the double counting... call it an even 3000)
3000 / 19600 = 15.31%


add that to the str8 draws and flushes, and you will get a flop you find very favorable about 1/3 of the time... so maybe you WILL want to be playing JTs into four and five way fields...

apologies for the confusion...

-switters