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Old 11-29-2005, 07:58 PM
StellarWind StellarWind is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 704
Default Re: Random Math / Theory Question

Here is an example of how to do this:

Board = KQ52
Your hand = AQ

Our estimate of the probability that he would play his hand the way he actually played if he holds:

55 = 10%
KK = 100%
QQ = 100%
AK = 50%
Everything else: 0%

55 = 3 possible hands * 10% = 30
KK = 3 possible hands * 100% = 300
QQ = 1 possible hand * 100% = 100
AK = 9 possible hands * 50% = 450

There is only one possible QQ hand because you can already see two queens.

There are nine possible AK hands because there are three unseen aces and three unseen kings.

P(55) = 30 / (30+300+100+450) = 30/880
P(KK) = 300 / (30+300+100+450) = 300/880
P(QQ) = 100 / (30+300+100+450) = 100/880
P(AK) = 450 / (30+300+100+450) = 450/880
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