[Spicymoose]

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Right, you've almost got it. The only factor left over is that it's far more unlikely to flop a set than a pair. Does this affect our results? Or is it independent when his actions represent either hand equally?

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That part doesn't matter. Once the cards are out, the likelyhoods of things change from how likely it was to happen before it happend.

Once again... see what hands they could be playing the way they are, and count the combos...

Either that, or phrase your question in an easier to understand way.